Certainly CUs tend to perpetuate the youth ministry stage. The real crush always seems to come when entering the workforce, then early parenthood. Home groups can meet some the relational needs and fit into a working schedule, but they can’t really match the drama and creativity. I agree.

Many churches struggle with the transition of young people from youth group into… whatever. A few yp find their way into ‘adult’ cell groups or house groups, but I suspect those that manage this generally feel culturally at home there. Many (most?) don’t. In a way the church is often saved from the issue by young people going away to University. Here they either fall away from the faith, lacking the external support that the youth group offered, or continue to thrive in churches with high student attendance or the Christian Union — a kind of grown up youth group but with peer leadership.
I suspect that part of the problem you identify is that the entirely appropriate investment of opportunities and creativity in youth work is unmatched in the church experience of most 20-somethings, many of whom are working out the same lifetime sized choices as their non-church friends in terms of career, relationships and faith.
By strange co-incidence I’m away this weekend with about 35 twenty-somethings where I’ll be helping them think about what it means to be community. I’ll raise some of the issues covered here and report back if anything helpful comes from it.

The youth drop off rate has been a question on my mind for quite some time. And the allusion to the emerging church question has somre real currency too i reckon.